Tata Strategic helped the company to identify and shortlist attractive markets for Urea from a group of countries by forecasting the demand over the next 15 years. Tata Strategic developed a regression based model to forecast urea consumption for 15 years involving key parameters for each of the 6 countries. Tata Strategic collected historical data on each parameter and performed a correlation analysis to eliminate insignificant parameters. Interdependencies among parameters and logical reasoning used to further shortlist core parameters.
A model was developed by performing multiple regression analysis on the 5-6 parameters. Based on this model, urea consumption was forecasted for 15 years for 6 countries. A multi-step estimation technique was incorporated to forecast some of the causal factors. The predicted consumption had a variation of less than 10% from International Fertilizer Association estimates for the first 5 years